Climate Change in Central Asia
In the following decade climate change is predicted to greatly impact Central Asia. Climate change is the change of many weather factors over time (16). The increased rate at which the climate has altered over the past two decades has been associated with human pollution, and is expected to worsen if these actions continue. Human induced climate change is mainly caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions putting the energy of the earth’s atmosphere ‘off- balance’ and warming the earth’s surface (9). This warming results in other climatic factors to change and alter at a faster rate.
For a general understanding of climate change check out this website! (17)
At the end of the 21st century, Central Asia is expected to increase by 3.7 ˚C, with the greatest warming occurring in the high altitudes of snow leopard habitat (9). This is believed to occur due to the warming of the earth’s surface reducing the amount of snowfall and glacier formation. Snow and ice are important as they reflect solar radiation, so without them temperatures in the area rise (9). Global warming is also predicted to increase monsoon intensity due to the difference in land-ocean temperatures increasing (4). As a result, Central Asia will experience increased drought in spring and rainfall during winter (1, 4, 8).
Mountain ranges vary topographically or structurally and the future climate of each mountain range is different (9). The Himalayas will be used as a case study into the effect of climate change on snow leopard habitat.
For a general understanding of climate change check out this website! (17)
At the end of the 21st century, Central Asia is expected to increase by 3.7 ˚C, with the greatest warming occurring in the high altitudes of snow leopard habitat (9). This is believed to occur due to the warming of the earth’s surface reducing the amount of snowfall and glacier formation. Snow and ice are important as they reflect solar radiation, so without them temperatures in the area rise (9). Global warming is also predicted to increase monsoon intensity due to the difference in land-ocean temperatures increasing (4). As a result, Central Asia will experience increased drought in spring and rainfall during winter (1, 4, 8).
Mountain ranges vary topographically or structurally and the future climate of each mountain range is different (9). The Himalayas will be used as a case study into the effect of climate change on snow leopard habitat.
Himalayas from space. Image provided by Sciencephotolibrary(2013)
Himalayas
Since the Himalayas formed 45 million years ago, species have diversified and adapted to become specialised to their environment (15). Consequently, many have a small range of temperatures in which they may survive. Species, such as the Himalayan pine will shift in their distribution over time, in response to changes in temperatures and rainfall (4, 15). In the next decade, the Himalayans are predicted to increase in average temperature (3-4˚C) and rainfall (1, 4, 6). This will increase the time for plants to grow whilst allowing their distribution to move up mountains where conditions become warmer and wetter (3,4, 6). Since the 19th century, 87% of all Himalayan plants have shifted 27m every decade to higher elevations (15). Studies into the pine species tree-rings show that this shift and increased growth rate is linked global warming (3). A recent study found that this upward shift of trees will reduce Himalayan snow leopard habitat by 30%, with nine to fifteen leopard habitats reducing and losing connection with each other (6).
Projected areas of snow leopard habitat threatened by increasing climate change under different levels of predicted pollution emission rates. Under the lowest emissions (yellow) significant amounts of snow leopard habitat is still affected. Image provided by Forrest (2012).
As the tree line climbs it will transform the snow leopard’s rocky habitat into pine forests that the cats are ill suited to. In some regions it will bring them closer to competitors such as the common leopard and Bhutan tiger, while threatening prey survival (6) Rather than moving to higher altitudes or adapting to hunt in forests, the snow leopards are predicted to turn to resources like livestock and urban dwellings. Already, the leopard is pressured by numerous threats, if pushed by climate change to increase livestock predation or reside in urban areas; hunting will increase, bringing the species closer to extinction (2, 6, 16).
Factors such as physical barriers or territorial competition, not assessed in these predictions, may further habitat loss (14). Snow leopards are also difficult to study and the estimates of their range may be under or over represented (12). Sadly, similar projections on climate change, tree line shifts and snow leopard habitat have also been made for the Altai-sayan mountain range. (2,16).
Factors such as physical barriers or territorial competition, not assessed in these predictions, may further habitat loss (14). Snow leopards are also difficult to study and the estimates of their range may be under or over represented (12). Sadly, similar projections on climate change, tree line shifts and snow leopard habitat have also been made for the Altai-sayan mountain range. (2,16).
Image provided by Irbis1983(2010)